In this week’s COVID-19 Industry Update Webinar, Destinations International invited three leading tourism marketing and research experts to share their insights into how the ongoing crisis has affected destination organizations, and how these organizations can turn to data and research to plan their next steps.

The key takeaways from each speaker are described below:

Craig Compagnone, CEO MMGY Global

Destination Marketers Have Moved from Wait Phase to Ready Phase

MMGY Global is recommending a four-phased model to plan your messaging strategy. These phases are:

1. Wait: when the outbreak began, quarantine and social distancing required that destination organizations pause most of their programs and focus on addressing the crisis at hand.
2. Ready: with the situation stabilizing, destination organizations are able to rejoin the conversation, provide inspiring messaging, and begin planning for recovery.
3. Set: as public health improves destination organizations will begin to be able to tell people to begin traveling again and helping people plan trips.
4. Go: when people are free to travel, the destination organization is back to business as usual.

What we’ve seen over the past week—or several weeks—has been a transition into phase two of this model. During phase one, destination organizations focused on building out informational portals about the virus, tracking cancellations and lost business, and aggregating dining-out options. In phase two, organizations can begin being less reactive to the demands created by the virus and more proactive in driving consumer behavior.

Positive Shifts in Consumer Sentiment

We are starting to see positive shifts in consumer sentiment for the first time since the pandemic began.  MMGY tracks consumer sentiment on social media and through search data. This week, they’ve observed an increase in search terms with positive messages about travel. For example, they’ve observed a 130% increase in conversations about needing or wanting a vacation, and an 11% increase in Google searches for a family vacation in March vs. April. While this does not necessarily indicate that people are ready to travel, it does suggest positive sentiment around the idea rather than vilification or fear of travel.  

Furthermore, MMGY’s research indicates that 61% of consumers agree that, with the right messaging, it is appropriate for destinations to begin advertising.  We are starting to see destinations ease back into marketing, but in an empathetic way, e.g. joining the conversation on social media by using the #throughmywindow hashtag.

Organizations will Ease Back into Marketing

In the next 30 days, MMGY expects organizations to begin investing back into promotion. This will likely begin with email, paid search, and some paid advertising. The idea is to capture travelers most intent on visiting and assumes demand for travel in the upcoming summer months if that travel is available.

Focus on Drive Markets and Domestic Travelers

It is not surprising, but MMGY’s research indicates that travelers feel most safe in their own cars followed by outdoor areas like parks—more so than in hotels, on domestic or international flights, or on cruises. It is, therefore, safe to assume that that drive markets will be among the first to recover, along with destinations that feature outdoor activities without large crowds.

The big question to be answered is whether and how this pent-up demand for travel will manifest itself in the months ahead. The short term reaction likely will be short domestic trips, primarily by car. This will likely mean shorter booking windows and so it may be hard to predict this in the data. In the meantime, MMGY will be tracking booking windows on long haul and international travel to try to understand recovery in those markets.

Matt Clement, Senior VP of Marketing, Arrivalist

Recovery is Coming, Let’s Begin Planning

We know that travel has tanked because of social distancing and stay-at-home compliance. Arrivalist has developed a new daily travel index which uses location data to take a daily pulse on consumer travel activity. The index uses anonymized, multi-sourced GPS location data for millions of users, tracking their location throughout the day, accurate to 30 feet. It tracks users who travel at least 50 miles from home, who spend up to two hours in the destination. This information is then made available online for destination organization. The index is free and available one. It is a valuable resource for destination organizations to understand traveler behavior and begin planning recovery.

Fast Track Road Trippers

Analysts and marketers agree that drive markets will recover first. Destination Organizations can use the daily travel index to keep a pulse on this market. Some actionable steps that organizations should take include:

• Define your drive markets. This is not just defined by driving distance from your destination. It should include source markets as well as market segments.  
• Focus specifically on trips in cars (for now). Travelers feel most safe in their cars. This will be an early market to recover.
• Understand the decline to better predict recovery. Perhaps trends in decline in travel can help predict to some degree what drive markets to pay attention to.
• Monitor the situation. Look for signs of life. Know when to redeploy resources.

Expect the Market to Begin to Return When Stay-Home Orders are Lifted

Looking at historical data from drive markets over the past several weeks reveal that the biggest factor affecting whether people were traveling was whether stay-at-home orders were enacted. The presence of a stay-home order correlates to a decline in travel more than an increase of COVID-19 cases in a destination. This suggests that the number of cases is less of a consideration than guidance from public officials. Therefore, you may assume that the inverse is also true: lifting stay-home orders will have more of an impact on whether people travel than a decline in local cases.

Carolyn Corda, CMO and Andria Godfrey, Sr. Director, Customer Success, Tourism & Hospitality, ADARA

Look for Subtle Changes in Traveler Intent

ADARA uses data shared by 270+ major travel brands to track both traveler intent and booking trends.  These trends are based on data that include 14 billion searches and a billion bookings. ADARA is then able to aggregate and unify this information to track and understand market behavior. No surprise, both travel intent and travel bookings are way down throughout the crisis. However, small changes in this data may suggest changes in demand—like tell tales on sailboat.

A Glimmer of Hope for Some US Destinations

In the U.S., the data reveals small bumps in bookings made 90+ days out. The biggest changes are in destinations including Indianapolis and Pittsburg, which may correspond to people booking travel home for the holidays or other events later in the year. Other leisure markets like Honolulu, San Francisco and DC are also experiencing small bumps in bookings 90+ days out. We began seeing more bookings for 90+ days out when airlines relaxed their cancellation policies last month.

Expect a Goldilocks Approach

Destinations should track multiple data sources to plan their recovery. A Goldilocks metaphor applies here, because destinations don’t want to begin marketing too soon and waste their budget, but they also don’t want to wait too long and miss out on early markets. Destinations should understand that there will not be a monolithic recovery, but instead it will be piecemeal and regional. There will not be a single inflection point in the data, but instead multiple indicators that destination organizations should be tracking.

Keep Up to Date with Destinations International 

This webinar is recorded and available online on our Online Learning Center. 

Destinations International is committed to keeping you up to date as COVID-19 continues to disrupt our industry. Join us for our weekly COVID-19 update webinar series, led by industry experts from around the world. Register here.