Much has been written about the amount of loss from the shutting down of major sectors of our economy.  Lost jobs, lost income, lost taxes, and lost spending. And for those of us in the middle of it all, we can match every one of those numbers with personal experience.  But a recent a working paper by University of Chicago economists Michael Greenstone and Vishan Nigam is looking at it from a different point of view. And if you think about it, it is the point of view that captures why we are basically voluntarily shutting down major sectors of our economy.

The report is shedding light on the economic benefits of staying home – something we often forget about. Their modeling found that three to four months of moderate social distancing starting in late March 2020 would save 1.7 million lives in the U.S. alone—a mix of avoided infections and sick people who die because of a lack of ICU capacity—by Oct. 1, producing economic benefits worth $8 trillion. According to the two authors these benefits represent over one-third of U.S. Gross National Product. If it was distributed among U.S. households, they are roughly equal to the current median household income of $60,000.

You can find the working paper entitled “Does Social Distancing Matter?” here.

It reminded me of an article By Garrett Graf from The Atlantic a couple of weeks back entitled “What Americans Are Doing Now Is Beautiful” (https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/inspiring-galvanizing-beautiful-spirit-2020/608308/) and points out that the public’s response to the coronavirus will stand as a remarkable moment of national mobilization. My favorite passage is this:

“The worry and unease about COVID-19 feels so inescapable that Americans can easily miss the sheer beauty of what is unfolding across the country right now. Yes, we are approaching errands that were routine just a week ago—to the hardware store or the grocery store—with the same wariness that we might bring to an Arctic exploration. Yet if we take a step back from the panic-buying of toilet paper, the response to COVID-19 should stand as one of the most beautiful moments in our country’s long history—a moment of shared, galvanizing national spirit that has existed in perhaps only in a handful of epochal years before, like 1776, 1861, 1933, and 1941, and, in modern times, after 9/11. We are witnessing people everywhere, acting mostly independently but all together, shutting our country down—a move that ensures millions will face a massive, incalculable economic hit—to give the weakest among us a better chance against the novel coronavirus. We are each sacrificing our daily routines—our gyms and coffee shops and offices—to keep health-care professionals from becoming overwhelmed.”

It is easy to get sucked in by all the bad news, missed opportunities and the real economic pain people are suffering, but we need to remember periodically why we are doing this. And remember that it is about helping people in our community. It is the core of what being a community shared value is all about.

About Jack Johnson

As Chief Advocacy Officer, Jack manages the overall public policy operations at Destinations International including member advocacy education and training, development of destination tools and best practices, coalition work with peer organizations, industry research and related public affairs activities. Currently, his work around positioning destination organizations as a shared value in each of their communities and speaking with a new lexicon based on the emotion-driven by those values has made him one of the leading voices of the travel industry.